ASX Pre-Market: Friday, 11 September 2026

Welcome to your morning briefing on overnight Wall Street action and what's set to move the ASX 200 at the open. (See yesterday's ASX Post-Market Wrap: 10 September 2026  and The Wall Street Wrap: September 10, 2026 for the full session recap.)

ASX Futures

SPI 200 futures were down 78 points, or 0.89%, to 8,733 as of the early Friday AEST session, pointing to a fourth straight day of losses. The weak lead follows Thursday's session locally, where the ASX 200 fell across every sector in its worst session in more than three months, down 92.0 points, or 1.03%, to 8,819.4, and comes as oil's push above US$107 a barrel and a further jump in global bond yields weighed on Wall Street overnight.

Overnight Leads + This Morning

Thursday was a rout locally. The ASX 200 fell across every sector, its worst session in more than three months, dropping 92.0 points, or 1.03%, to 8,819.4, its lowest closing level since 24 July. Despite the index halving its intraday decline into the close, breadth was ugly on the broader S&P/ASX 300, where decliners crushed advancers 214 to 61. Technology, miners and consumer stocks were hit hardest, while Communication Services and Utilities held up best.

Overnight, the story intensified further. Oil prices leaped to their highest levels since before the summer, with Brent settling up 5.9% at US$107.63 a barrel (having briefly topped US$108) and WTI up 6.7% to close at US$102.48, both their highest closes since 19 May. WTI is now up 52.9% since the Iran war began at the end of February, and up 78.5% year-to-date. US gasoline has climbed to an average of nearly US$4.28 a gallon, up almost 34% from a year earlier, while US diesel surpassed US$6 a gallon for the first time ever.

Against that backdrop, Wall Street fell for a fourth straight session, its longest losing streak since June: the Dow dropped 316.56 points, or 0.6%, to 52,064.10, the S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,591.70, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.65% to 26,081.72. US producer prices accelerated to 5.4% year-on-year in August, from 4.8% in July, in line with consensus. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.95%, from 4.83% on Wednesday, its highest level since October 2023 and up from just 3.97% before the Iran war began. Fed funds futures were pricing a 73% probability of a quarter-point hike at next week's meeting, up from 61% the day before, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate a quarter point to 2.5%, citing the Middle East conflict's inflationary impact. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.3%, one of the world's biggest overnight moves.

Close Levels

Analytical View

Thursday's local session was broad-based selling with no sector spared. Financials fell 0.9% to their lowest level since mid-June, with Commonwealth Bank down 1.3% to near a four-month low and both National Australia Bank and Westpac off more than 1.4%. Miners had their worst session since 2 September, down 1.6% as iron ore softened on demand concerns. Technology fell 1.7% to a six-week low tracking weak Wall Street peers, with WiseTech down 1.6% and Xero down 4%. The volatility index spiked almost 12%, its biggest jump since mid-June.

Overnight, US markets showed the same pattern beneath the surface. The S&P 500 is down just under 2.5% from its 52-week closing high, but the cracks run deeper than the headline number suggests: the S&P Equal Weight index is down 4% from its own high, and the small-cap Russell 2000 is off almost 5.5%, both more exposed to higher oil prices denting consumer spending and higher borrowing costs respectively. High-beta chip stocks that have led the bull market also came under pressure on fears that higher rates and oil could slow the economy. One level worth watching locally is the ASX 200's 200-day moving average, which was sitting around 8,816 before Thursday's open; the index has now dropped below that level, which could put more attention on the 8,800 area after the breakout above 9,000 in August failed to hold. The ASX 200 remains slightly higher for 2026 overall, so this isn't yet a major correction.

What could change the picture: Friday's US CPI print (10:30pm AEST) is the next major catalyst, with consensus at 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, ahead of the Fed's own decision on 16 September and the RBA's on 29 September.

Commodities & Rates

Home & Away

Names with a foot in both camps today, ASX movers with direct overseas read-through, and overseas news with a local echo.

BHP Group (ASX:BHP): shares fell 3.0% to $62.66 on Thursday, weighed by middling iron ore prices and concerns over fresh Chinese regulatory headwinds. Reports earlier this week said China Mineral Resources Group, which controls more than half of China's annual iron ore imports, directed domestic steel mills to pause purchasing talks for Rio Tinto's (ASX:RIO) Pilbara Blend. The move raised concerns that BHP could also face fresh Chinese scrutiny, despite having only recently reached a one-year supply deal with CMRG. Iron ore prices moved in a tight range on Thursday, adding to the pressure.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): shares surged 3.6% overnight following a successful launch of the company's first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, in new CEO John Ternus's debut keynote.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU): both slid overnight, Intel down 5.6% and Micron down 4.7%, as high-beta chip stocks that have led the bull market came under pressure on fears that higher rates and oil could slow the economy.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): both finished up on the day, but by less than 1%, relative resilience among hyperscalers even as chipmakers fell.

Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO): both remain in focus as oil extends its rally, with Brent and WTI both closing at their highest levels since 19 May overnight.

Newmont (ASX:NEM) and Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST): gold fell 1.84% to US$4,317.26/oz overnight even as broader risk assets sold off, a reminder that gold has not been trading as a straightforward safe haven through this bout of volatility.

Local Catalysts

Every sector fell Thursday, a genuinely broad-based session. The ASX 200's worst session in more than three months saw decliners crush advancers 214 to 61 on the broader S&P/ASX 300. Financials fell 0.9% to their lowest since mid-June (Commonwealth Bank -1.3% to $152.60, NAB -1.91% to $37.54), while miners had their worst session since 2 September, down 1.6%.

RBA hike odds climb to 75%. Traders are now pricing a 75% chance of a rate rise at the RBA's 29 September meeting, up from 64% earlier in the week.

200-day moving average now broken. The ASX 200's 200-day moving average, sitting around 8,816, gave way on Thursday, with the 8,800 level now the next support to watch after August's breakout above 9,000 failed to hold.

Iron ore softens amid Chinese contract tension. Iron ore moved in a tight range Thursday at a level back below US$100 a tonne, adding pressure to miners already contending with reports that China's state-backed buyer has paused purchasing talks with Rio Tinto over its flagship Pilbara Blend product.

Gas reservation policy officially softened. The federal government replaced its fixed 20% domestic gas reservation requirement with an annual cap set by the Australian Energy Regulator, aiming for a modest oversupply into the local market. Energy Minister Chris Bowen estimated the change could free up to 200 additional petajoules a year, with reservation levels differing by region: 15% in Western Australia, and the Northern Territory largely exempt given its modest local demand. Existing export contracts are unaffected, and the scheme's start date has been pushed back six months to 1 January 2028. Santos is the only major east coast LNG producer that doesn't already supply significant domestic volumes; Origin's APLNG and Shell's QCLNG both exceed their contracted domestic volumes already.

Management & Fed / RBA Speak

Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank, on Thursday's rate hike: Called the quarter-point hike to a 2.5% deposit rate "a no brainer" that was decided unanimously and is "robust" against all three scenarios the ECB mapped out for the region's economy. Asked about investor bets on further hikes, she said "markets do what they have to do, and we do what we have to do, which is to provide price stability."

Tony Spring, CEO, Macy's (NYSE:M), on tariff refunds and pricing: Said Thursday that Macy's is using some of the US$116 million in tariff refunds it received from the government, $98 million during the quarter and a further $18 million after quarter-end, to lower prices on certain items such as furniture and other big-ticket purchases. Macy's reported stronger profit and revenue than analysts expected and raised its earnings forecast for the year, though it warned that "macroeconomic and geopolitical factors" could influence how much customers feel comfortable spending. Shares fell 4.7% despite the beat.

Corporate Actions & Earnings Calendar

Economic Calendar (Friday, AEST):

Ex-Dividend Today (Friday, 11 September 2026):

Closing Line

That's the pre-market wrap for today. The ASX opens under sustained pressure: a fourth straight losing session on Wall Street, oil at its highest since before the summer, US bond yields at their highest since October 2023, and SPI 200 futures already down close to 1% before the open. Locally, Thursday's broad-based selloff broke the ASX 200's 200-day moving average, with the 8,800 level now the line in the sand. Friday's US CPI print is the next major catalyst, ahead of the Fed's 16 September decision and the RBA's own call on 29 September.