Stock Market Update: CPI Steady, Nvidia Lifts Tech Stocks, Bitcoin Dips as Traders Watch Fed

• Early Tuesday US stock futures pointed higher, buoyed by news Nvidia (+4%) will soon resume some AI chip sales to China and an in-line June US inflation report.
• Key economic data showed June US CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, in line with expectations, and 2.7% year-over-year. Core CPI was +2.9% YoY. China's Q2 GDP grew a better-than-expected 5.2%, though retail sales slowed.
• The gains build on Monday's modest advance, which pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2025 amid hopes that recent tariff threats will be softened through negotiation.
• Notable premarket movers Tuesday included major banks reporting mixed Q2 results: JPMorgan and Citigroup beat, while Wells Fargo (-3%) cut guidance and BlackRock (-3%) missed on revenue. Nvidia (+4%) jumped on news it will resume some chip sales to China. Trade Desk (+14%) surged on its upcoming S&P 500 inclusion.
• On the trade front, President Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of ~100% on countries still trading with Russia if a Ukraine ceasefire deal isn't reached in 50 days, a significant policy shift.
• Q2 earnings season is picking up pace with the major banks, with analysts forecasting modest S&P 500 earnings growth of just 4.3% YoY for the quarter.
• Company news included Nvidia announcing it will soon resume H20 AI chip sales to China after getting the necessary US licenses. Trade Desk is set to join the S&P 500 index this Friday.
• Global markets Tuesday saw Europe open higher, with the UK's FTSE 100 crossing 9,000 for the first time. Asia also closed broadly higher on China's GDP data and the Nvidia news.
• US Treasury yields eased slightly Tuesday morning (10-year around 4.401%) after the in-line June CPI report. Meanwhile, Japanese 10-year bond yields hit a 16-year high.
• Gold prices firmed Tuesday on a weaker dollar and trade concerns. Oil prices stabilized after recent volatility. Bitcoin pulled back sharply from record highs.
• Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, balancing positive tech news against broader trade policy uncertainty and its potential economic impact.

Stock futures pointed higher Tuesday morning as investors responded to a key inflation print and ongoing corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures gained ground, buoyed by a rebound in Nvidia shares, which rose more than 4% in premarket trading after the company announced it would soon resume H20 AI chip sales to China. The positive move helped lift broader sentiment, especially among tech stocks, which have remained a primary driver of market gains in recent months.

A key catalyst for the session is U.S. inflation report that showed consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, CPI came in at 2.7%, slightly above the 2.6% estimate but still within a range that markets deemed manageable. The data helped alleviate concerns about further inflationary pressures tied to President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have raised the risk of imported cost inflation for U.S. consumers. But economists are predicting the start of rise in prices due to tariffs.

Despite new tariff threats over the weekend, the S&P 500 managed to edge higher on Monday, with losses capped as traders bet that many of the proposed duties will ultimately be softened through negotiation. The broader market is showing signs of resilience as attention shifts to the second-quarter earnings season, which picks up pace this week. While expectations for corporate results remain modest—analysts forecast blended S&P 500 earnings growth of just 4.3% year over year—many investors are hoping for positive surprises to support equity valuations at record highs. This would mark the slowest pace of earnings growth since Q4 2023, but even slightly better-than-expected reports could act as a tailwind for equities.

US Market Previous Day:

The S&P 500 rose 0.14% on Tuesday to close at 6,268.56, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.27% to end at 20,640.33. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted gains, adding 88.14 points, or 0.20%, to finish at 44,459.65. The modest uptick in equities came amid cautious optimism in the market, as investors seek to digest inflation data and corporate earnings, while weighing the impact of the latest geopolitical developments.

US Futures Remain Flat:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remained flat with decline of 0.1%
• S&P 500 futures showed gains of 0.4%
• Nasdaq Composite futures lead the pack with gains of 0.68%

Biggest Premarket Movers

• JPMorgan Chase: Shares fell less than 1% in the premarket even after the bank posted second-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations. The stronger-than-expected results were driven by its investment banking and trading revenue.
• Wells Fargo: Shares were down 3% in premarket trading after the company lowered its 2025 net income guidance, now expecting it to be roughly in line with 2024 levels instead of the previously forecasted 1% to 3% increase. This reduction in outlook overshadowed the bank's better-than-expected second-quarter profits.
• Citigroup: Shares added less than 1% after the bank reported second-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations. Citigroup earned $1.96 per share on revenue of $21.67 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG had anticipated earnings of $1.60 on $20.98 billion in revenue.
• BlackRock: Stock in the world’s largest asset manager slipped about 3% after its second-quarter revenue missed Wall Street’s expectations. BlackRock reported revenue of $5.42 billion, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for $5.46 billion.
• LM Ericsson: The Swedish telecommunications stock slipped 2% after reporting second-quarter revenue of SEK56.10B. This figure came in below the SEK59.29B consensus among analysts, according to FactSet.
• Bank of New York Mellon: Shares fell less than 1% despite the bank reporting second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.94 per share, which exceeded the $1.76 per share LSEG analysts had expected. The company’s revenue of $5.03 billion also came in above forecasts.
• Albertsons: The supermarket chain was up slightly after reporting a narrow fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue beat. The company also reaffirmed its full-year adjusted earnings guidance, which was in line with FactSet’s consensus estimate.
• State Street: Shares slipped nearly 2% after the bank reported second-quarter net interest income of $729 million, falling short of the $733.2 million that FactSet analysts had estimated. This shortfall overshadowed its overall second-quarter earnings beat.
• Nvidia: Shares jumped 4% after the graphics processing unit manufacturer announced it will “soon” resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China upon receiving the necessary licenses from the U.S. government. The Trump administration had previously halted sales of the chip to China in April. In sympathy, fellow semiconductor stocks Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Micron Technology rose 5%, 1%, and 2%, respectively.
• Trade Desk: Shares surged 14% after S&P Global announced that the digital advertising company is set to join the S&P 500 index as of Friday. It will replace software maker Ansys, which is being acquired by Synopsys. Shares of AppLovin and Robinhood Markets, which were speculated to be potential candidates but were not chosen, both shed around 1%.
• SolarEdge Technologies, Enphase Energy: The solar stock fell nearly 2% in premarket trading after JPMorgan downgraded its shares to "neutral" from "overweight." The Wall Street firm cited the stock's recent massive rally (up over 110% in three months) and stated it is now looking for signs of stronger-than-expected market share gain or margin expansion before turning more positive. Shares of Enphase Energy also slipped 2% after receiving a similar downgrade.
• National Fuel Gas: Shares popped 4% on the heels of a double upgrade from Bank of America, which moved its rating to "buy" from "underperform." The bank cited the energy company's improved productivity as a key reason for the more bullish stance.

Tariff Update:

Attention turned to the White House on Monday, where U.S. President Donald Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. During the meeting, Trump made a striking announcement: if Russia fails to agree to a ceasefire deal to end its invasion of Ukraine within 50 days, the U.S. will impose “secondary tariffs” of about 100% on countries that continue trading with Moscow. Unlike traditional tariffs, which target goods from a specific nation, these secondary measures are designed to penalize any country or company purchasing Russian exports, effectively pressuring Russia through its economic partners.

Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating he had expected a deal months ago. In addition to the tariff threat, the president announced that the U.S. would coordinate the transfer of billions of dollars in American-manufactured military equipment to Ukraine, paid for by European nations and delivered through NATO allies. The policy shift signals a more assertive posture from the Trump administration, combining economic and military measures in response to Russia’s continued aggression. Markets responded cautiously to the geopolitical developments, with defensive sectors seeing modest inflows amid rising tensions.

Key Economic Data/News:

U.S. consumer prices accelerated in June, signaling the possible onset of a tariff-driven inflation uptick that has kept the Federal Reserve wary about resuming interest rate cuts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June, following a modest 0.1% increase in May, marking the strongest monthly gain since January. On a year-over-year basis, inflation climbed to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the 2.6% economists had forecast. The monthly core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% after a similar increase in May. Annually, core CPI stood at 2.9%, inching up from 2.8% over the past three months.

The jump in inflation comes amid mounting price pressures from tariffs recently imposed by the Trump administration. Goldman Sachs now expects core CPI inflation to increase by 0.3% to 0.4% monthly over the coming months, pointing to tariffs pushing up prices on consumer electronics, automobiles, and clothing. However, the bank noted that core services inflation would likely remain stable in the near term. While vehicle prices dropped in June — new vehicle prices fell 0.3% and used cars and trucks declined 0.7% — apparel prices, considered tariff-sensitive, rose 0.4%, indicating early signs of impact from trade duties.

The inflation backdrop has clouded expectations for monetary easing. Bank of America analysts said the latest round of Trump tariffs could push the effective trade-weighted tariff rate up by 4 percentage points, posing about 30 basis points of stagflationary risk. That, in turn, reduces the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Fed. In a note to clients, economist Claudio Irigoyen said the administration’s continued "escalate to de-escalate" strategy raises uncertainty, making it more rational for the Fed to hold off on policy moves.

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting indicated that officials still see scope for rate cuts later in 2025, but opinions vary widely on how many. Market participants, however, remain convinced of easing ahead, with futures pricing in a 96% chance of two quarter-point cuts by year-end, according to CME FedWatch.

Meanwhile, China’s economy posted stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, offering a brief reprieve for global markets. GDP expanded by 5.2% from a year ago, surpassing economists’ expectations of 5.1% but moderating from the 5.4% pace in Q1. While industrial output surged 6.8% — well above the 5.7% forecast — retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%, missing projections and reflecting cautious consumer sentiment. China's policymakers have recently rolled out a suite of support measures including rate cuts and liquidity injections, with early signs of improvement in manufacturing surveys suggesting that the policies may be gaining traction.

Earnings Season/Company News:

JPMorgan Chase surpassed Wall Street expectations in the second quarter, posting earnings of $5.24 per share and revenue of $45.68 billion. Though both figures reflect a year-over-year decline — 17% for earnings and 10% for revenue — the comparisons are skewed by a one-time $7.9 billion gain from Visa shares booked in the same quarter last year. CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted continued resilience in the U.S. economy, supported by recent tax reforms and potential deregulation. However, he cautioned against significant downside risks including ongoing tariff and trade tensions, geopolitical instability, growing fiscal deficits, and elevated asset valuations. Wells Fargo also reported results on Tuesday, with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley scheduled to release theirs on Wednesday.

Nvidia shares jumped more than 4% in premarket trading after the company announced plans to resume sales of its H20 chips to China. The move follows assurances from the U.S. government that export licenses will be granted, enabling Nvidia to restart deliveries soon. The company had been restricted from selling certain GPUs to China earlier this year and has since pushed back against the policy. The apparent shift in Washington’s stance comes shortly after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump at the White House last week.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy is garnering renewed investor interest as Bitcoin prices approach record highs. TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza raised his price target for the stock to $680 from $590, implying more than 56% upside from last week’s close. Vitanza noted that while several firms are attempting to replicate MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-centric strategy, none can match its cost of capital efficiency. The company, which has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin through a series of financing deals, remains a proxy bet on further crypto appreciation.

Global Market Trends:

European shares edged higher on Tuesday, lifted by improving sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled openness to negotiate tariff terms with the European Union. The conciliatory tone from Washington eased concerns about a renewed escalation in transatlantic trade tensions. Investor focus also turned toward the upcoming corporate earnings season, with hopes that strong profit updates could support equity valuations amid lingering economic uncertainty.

The UK’s FTSE 100 crossed a significant milestone, breaching the 9,000-point mark for the first time. The index benefited from investor optimism around the UK’s relatively protected position from broader U.S. tariffs, as it is one of only two countries with a formal trade deal with Washington. Rising expectations of a rate cut from the Bank of England also buoyed sentiment, pushing shares higher across sectors.

In Asia-Pacific, markets closed broadly higher on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 1.6% to close at 24,590.12, leading regional gains. Mainland China’s CSI 300 index was flat at 4,019.06. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.55% to 39,678.02, while the Topix index was largely unchanged at 2,825.31. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.41% to finish at 3,215.28, and the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.69% to 812.88. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 benchmark rose 0.7% to close at 8,630.30.

Tech stocks in Hong Kong continued their upward trend, marking a third consecutive session of gains. Shares of companies importing Nvidia chips saw strong demand after the U.S. chipmaker announced it would resume sales of its H20 GPUs to China, fueling optimism about AI-related demand despite broader trade tensions.

Debt Market:

In the debt market, U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly following the release of June’s core consumer price index, which aligned closely with economist expectations. The 10-year yield slipped by about three basis points to 4.401%, while the 30-year yield fell to 4.945%. The 2-year yield held steady near 3.889%. Analysts expect Treasury yields to remain range-bound in the near term as markets weigh inflation risks against an anticipated surge in government debt issuance.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the yield on the 10-year government bond climbed to its highest level since 2008. The rise reflects investor concerns about increased fiscal spending ahead of the country’s upper house election, pushing Japanese bond yields higher even as global rates stabilize.

Commodities and Other Assets:

Gold prices firmed on Tuesday, supported by renewed safe-haven demand as concerns over the ongoing global trade war resurfaced. A weaker U.S. dollar — down 0.1% on the day — further underpinned gold, making it more attractive for foreign buyers. Investor sentiment toward gold remains buoyed by a confluence of factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats, and continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Spot silver also advanced, building on Monday’s rally that saw it touch its highest level since September 2011.

Oil prices were largely flat on Tuesday, stabilizing after recent volatility linked to geopolitical developments. Crude initially gained on the prospect of new U.S. sanctions against Russia, but prices moderated after President Trump set a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war or face economic penalties. The extended timeline alleviated immediate concerns of supply disruption, particularly from major Russian crude importers like China, India, and Turkey. Meanwhile, the OPEC Secretary General maintained an upbeat outlook on global oil demand, expecting strong consumption to persist through Q3 and help balance the market despite geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin pulled back sharply from Monday’s record high of $122,800, falling over 4% to hover near $117,000 as investors locked in profits and awaited further clarity on Federal Reserve policy. The recent surge, driven by optimism over institutional adoption and improving risk sentiment, lost momentum amid macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious positioning ahead of key economic data. Despite the decline, Bitcoin remains in a broadly bullish range, having posted substantial gains over the past few weeks.

Market Sentiment:

Investors remain focused on trade developments as the U.S. prepares to implement 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union and Mexico starting August 1. The announcement, made by President Donald Trump on Saturday, has drawn responses from both blocs, with leaders from the EU and Mexico signaling their willingness to continue negotiations in hopes of securing lower tariff rates before the deadline. The move adds another layer of uncertainty just ahead of key inflation data due this week, which could offer insight into how earlier rounds of tariffs are already influencing prices across the U.S. economy.

Investors will be watching closely to see whether strong corporate earnings can continue to offset the headwinds posed by escalating trade tensions. Thus far, the market has demonstrated resilience in the face of tariff-related news, with more attention paid to solid earnings and economic stability. However, any signs of margin pressure or weaker forward guidance linked to trade policy could test that narrative.

Meanwhile, a growing rift between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve is emerging as another risk for markets. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday that Trump could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell “if there’s cause,” a comment that follows increased scrutiny from the administration over the cost of renovating the Fed’s Washington headquarters. The president has continued to criticize Powell for not cutting interest rates despite recent economic challenges. The central bank, for its part, has defended its independence and pushed back on criticisms of its budget and facilities, signaling a potentially contentious road ahead between the White House and the Fed.