Wall Street Wrap: Pre-Market, October 16, 2026

Futures edge higher as the tech rout pauses, with Picard Medical and Tesla jumping while CoreWeave and Travelers slide

Wall Street looks set for a modestly higher open on Friday as the AI-driven tech rout pauses, though the major indexes are still heading for a losing week and hot import prices keep inflation worries alive.

Futures Snapshot

Futures were mostly higher early Friday, with the Nasdaq slightly lower as worries over AI debt lingered.

What's Driving the Open

Wall Street is coming off a rebound after a sharp AI-led selloff earlier in the week. On Thursday the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,744, the Dow gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%, but the S&P 500 is still down 0.9% this week and the Nasdaq 2.4%. Chipmakers were lower again, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down 0.7% in pre-market trading and 7.4% week to date, led by declines in Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK). Investors remain worried about mounting credit risks linked to the AI trade, particularly at heavily indebted data-center operators. Asian markets bounced back, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.39% and South Korea's Kospi up 2.05% after drops of 4.9% and 7.6% on Thursday, and European stocks rose as markets stabilized.

Inflation worries are not going away. Import prices rose 1.1% in September against 0.8% expected, and 8.1% from a year earlier, a week after hot consumer and producer price reports. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at an IMF event in Bangkok, declined to say whether the Fed would raise rates again before year-end. "I don't prejudge meetings," he said, and traders took it as a sign the central bank will hold policy steady later this month. The CME Group's FedWatch tool points to about an 85% chance that the Fed keeps rates unchanged at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, with a hike seen as likelier in December. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.021 percentage points at 5.108%, easing from above 5.3% earlier this week, and the dollar index is on track for a weekly decline.

What could change the picture: Renewed stress at heavily indebted AI data-center operators would revive the tech selloff, a hawkish turn from Fed officials would lift yields, and further attacks around the Strait of Hormuz would push oil higher.

Overnight Markets

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.39% higher at 65,324.29, while South Korea's Kospi rose 2.05% to 5,668.05. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 1% to 8,806.70, mainland China's CSI 300 closed 0.11% higher at 4,170.61, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.51% in the last hour of trade. Indonesian stocks suffered their biggest drop since 1998 after MSCI said the country's market no longer merited emerging-market status.

In Europe, stocks rose as markets stabilized after the tech-led selloff. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.6%, Germany's DAX up around 1% and France's CAC 40 up 0.5%, while London's FTSE 100 was up less than 0.1%.

Pre-Market Movers

Rates, FX & Crypto

Treasury yields were mixed, with longer maturities slightly higher and shorter maturities lower. The dollar index fell 0.4% to 101.65, after hitting a 1.5-year high near 103 on Wednesday, and is on track for a weekly decline as lower yields reduce the currency's appeal. The weaker dollar helped lift the euro from its recent 17-month low, and the pair is up from this week's low of $1.1113. Bitcoin is rebounding after dipping to roughly $79,770 on Thursday during the AI-stock rout, with buyers defending the $80,000 level, which matches the 50-day moving average, and BlackRock's bitcoin ETF drew $205.8 million of inflows. Its correlation with the Nasdaq and chip stocks has risen above 0.9, and analysts see $80,000 to $87,000 as the October range, with $88,000 to $90,000 as upside targets if tech stabilizes.

Commodities

Oil is little changed but elevated, and prices are still headed for a weekly gain on Hormuz attacks, a ship sinking and a large U.S. inventory draw, while the IEA's diesel release and a possible easing of shadow-fleet sanctions limited the gains. Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have surged in the past 10 days, and import prices show the strain, with fuel imports up 4.8% in September. Natural gas is the weak spot, down 4.67%. Gold is steady near $4,170 an ounce, supported by the weaker dollar, while copper gains 1%.

Key Levels & Catalysts Today

Economic data

• Import prices rose 1.1% in September against 0.8% expected, and 8.1% from a year earlier, the most since July 2022. Fuel imports jumped 4.8%.
• Export prices rose 2.2% against 1% expected, the most since April, and are up 11.6% from a year earlier.
• The New York Fed's Services Business Activity Index fell to -20.7 in October from -8.7 in September, its lowest since March, while selling price increases accelerated to their fastest pace since 2022.
• The Fed meets Oct. 27-28, and the CME FedWatch tool shows about an 85% chance of no change.

Corporate

• Ladder Capital holds its earnings call at 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Tesla reports third-quarter results on Oct. 21.

Top Stories

Indonesian stocks suffer their biggest drop since 1998 after an MSCI downgrade. The index provider said the country's market no longer merited emerging-market status and outlined plans to remove it from key indexes tracked by funds. Turkey's main stock index also slid more than 3% after MSCI froze certain changes to its Turkey equity indexes. Asian shares otherwise rebounded.

Government bonds are regaining their safe-haven appeal. G7 government bond markets are on course for their strongest weekly performance since late May, as investors sought safety amid concerns about the finances of AI-related companies. The correlation between German bond yields and the Stoxx 600 turned positive this week for the first time since August, even as Germany's 10-year yield stands at 3.4355%. Amelie Derambure, a senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi, said monetization is still the big unanswered question for AI, but she remains overweight U.S. equities and expects earnings strong enough to limit any market correction.

G7 finance leaders agree to rehearse responses to AI cyber attacks. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said G7 finance ministries and central banks will hold tabletop exercises to guard against AI-driven cyber attacks, after the IMF warned this week that confidence could be undermined by an attack on a critical service of a financial institution. The exercises could include private financial institutions. The Bank of England is working with banks on deep cyber-recovery options, its deputy governor said.

AI listings could ease investor fears, says one backer. Jeff Richards of Notable Capital said so much of what is happening in AI is happening in private markets, and that AI-linked companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI going public could help ease concerns. He expects more information to reach the market over the course of 2027.

Eyes on whether the rebound in Asian chipmakers holds, on Tesla's third-quarter results on Oct. 21, and on the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, where markets expect rates to hold.