Wall Street Wrap: Pre-Market, October 5, 2026

Futures flat as yields hold near multiyear highs, while Vaxcyte, PTC and Brazil lead the movers

Wall Street opens the week little changed, with Treasury yields holding near multiyear highs and traders looking ahead to Wednesday's Fed minutes, while Brazilian stocks surge after the first round of the country's presidential vote.

Futures Snapshot

Futures were little changed early Monday as traders eyed Treasury yields and global oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, due Wednesday.

What's Driving the Open

Stocks are coming off a week defined by surging Treasury yields and a surprisingly lackluster jobs report, which helped ease concerns about another Fed rate hike this month. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2% on Friday to a record 27,190.86, as Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) hit an all-time high.

Treasury yields held steady near multiyear highs after a sharp selloff the week before. The benchmark 10-year yield was at 5.269% and the 30-year at 5.624%, both having surged to multiyear highs in recent weeks as traders fretted that inflation would keep the Fed holding rates higher for longer. The central bank raised its overnight rate by 0.25 percentage point last month. Traders now price an 80% to 82% chance that it holds steady in October, up from 36% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool, though a December hike is still expected, followed by two more in the first half of 2027.

Wednesday's minutes from the September meeting are the next test. Deutsche Bank analysts said the unsettled bond market makes incoming data and Fed communication particularly relevant, and that the minutes will be worth watching for how the committee frames the tightening cycle and for its discussion of the neutral rate, where estimates shifted higher in the September projections. The Institute for Supply Management's services activity report is due Monday.

Beyond rates, Citi strategist Beata Manthey noted that global equities have climbed about 12% this year and sit just below all-time highs despite mounting headwinds, and said Citi remains in the "resilience" camp for now. Single-stock action was dominated by Vaxcyte's pivotal vaccine data, Brazil's election result and Schneider Electric's $22.6 billion deal for PTC.

What could change the picture: A hotter-than-expected ISM services reading or a hawkish tilt in Wednesday's Fed minutes could revive rate-hike bets and push yields back toward their highs; a softer reading would reinforce the easing that followed Friday's jobs report.

Overnight Markets

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.40% higher at 69,946.86, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 ended flat at 8,686.40. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was marginally higher in its last hour of trade on Monday. Markets in mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays. In Europe, France's Schneider Electric tumbled 7.6% just after the open on its announced acquisition of PTC.

Pre-Market Movers

Rates, FX & Crypto

The dollar index reached 102.53, its highest level since April 10, 2025, before easing to 102.23. The yen was supported by verbal warnings from authorities against depreciation, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's renewed commitment to fiscal sustainability eased concerns about Japan's public finances, while data showed core inflation in Tokyo accelerating in September at its fastest pace in 10 months, bolstering the case for further rate hikes.

Commodities

Oil prices were mixed as Middle East crude exports rose, with flows through both the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline reportedly trending higher. OPEC+ countries agreed to maintain their oil-production rates; the cartel has raised its quotas several times this year, though the Iran war has prevented that from significantly increasing supply. Brent oscillated between $98 and $102 per barrel over the weekend amid frequent attacks on ships transiting the strait. On Monday, a tanker was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and told to turn back or risk being targeted, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The tanker complied, about 11 nautical miles north of Oman's port city of Khasab.

Key Levels & Catalysts Today

Economic data

• The Institute for Supply Management's services activity report is due Monday.
• Minutes from the Fed's September meeting, at which it raised its overnight rate by 0.25 percentage point, are due Wednesday.

Corporate

• OKXICE, the joint venture between crypto exchange OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Sunday to launch a tokenized securities platform for around-the-clock trading of US stocks, with more than 60 listed companies available throughout the week. Co-chair Andrew Cuomo called it a "landmark step toward a truly global, 24/7 Wall Street." The SEC unveiled an exemption last month allowing companies to offer trading in tokenized stocks, two days after comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation backed by President Trump failed to advance in the Senate. The NYSE, Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange are also preparing to launch round-the-clock trading in the coming months, and prediction markets' push into US stock trading has recently raised regulatory concerns.

Top Stories

Brazil's presidential election heads to a runoff after an unexpected first-round lead for Flávio Bolsonaro. The populist-right candidate won 47% of the vote against 45% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a margin of about 2 percentage points, and now appears to be the favorite in the October 25 runoff. His father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was sentenced to 27 years in jail for plotting a coup in 2022.

Spain's prime minister calls a snap election for November 29. Pedro Sánchez acted after parliament voted down housing measures including a suspension of evictions of vulnerable tenants until 2030, higher taxes on tourist rentals, a two-year extension on leases expiring before 2028, and limits on residential purchases by investment firms. The defeat deepened public anger after weekend protests that followed the September eviction of an 87-year-old disabled woman from her home of 70 years. Eurasia Group's Federico Santi puts a 70% probability on a center-right majority, citing the opposition's polling lead, but notes Sánchez's record of turning around difficult elections. A new government could also raise questions over NATO spending and Spain's position as the "last holdout" on a less confrontational EU stance toward China on trade.

Saudi Aramco's chief executive warns it could take up to two years to rebuild global oil inventories. Amin Nasser said nearly 3 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February, while 1 billion barrels have been released from stocks, mostly from commercial inventories. He said the remaining 6 billion or so barrels in storage are not practically available, and that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. The comments follow Friday's agreement by G7 governments to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, after pressure from President Trump.

The euro slides to a 17-month low as French bond spreads widen. The currency fell as low as $1.1161, its weakest since May 2025, and recorded a fourth straight weekly decline against the dollar. The yield gap between French and German bonds widened to about 150 basis points on Friday, the highest since the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis in 2011, before easing to about 145. Commerzbank strategist Hauke Siemssen said the spread selloff increasingly feeds on itself. Goldman Sachs International co-CEO Anthony Gutman said rising government bond yields are a challenge across the Western world, citing recent turmoil in Treasurys and French bonds, and called for lower government spending and stronger growth to curb borrowing costs.

China accelerates the consolidation of its smaller banks. A record 670 lenders, about one-quarter of the country's banks, were closed in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings, as authorities pushed mergers and dissolutions to create fewer, larger and better-capitalized institutions. Fitch said rural banks have a return on assets of 0.45% in the first half, down from 0.56% in 2021, and non-performing loans of 2.8% against a sector average of 1.5%, though it considers system-wide contagion unlikely. The push comes as China's economy grew 4.3% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since 2022, and industrial profits rose 4.2% in August, their weakest pace this year.

Eyes on today's ISM services data and Wednesday's Fed minutes for how the committee frames the neutral rate, and on Brazil's runoff and the widening gap on French bonds for the next read on global risk appetite.