Wall Street Wrap: Pre-Market, September 23, 2026

U.S. futures edge lower as oil rallies and Iran talks continue

Futures Snapshot

Futures pulled back from their earlier levels as Brent crude resumed its climb through the morning. The broader tape stayed close to flat, with traders reluctant to push index futures far in either direction ahead of a heavy pre-market earnings slate and a fresh read on Fed policy.

What's Driving the Open

U.S. equity futures were lower early Wednesday as oil prices climbed on renewed uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran war. Brent crude touched a morning high near $100.49 a barrel, up about 1.25%, while WTI crude also rose to $91.19, up 0.73%. Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 futures were all in the red, with the Dow the biggest laggard.

The overnight narrative centered on the United Nations General Assembly, where President Trump said U.S. and Iranian officials held a "very good" three-hour meeting on the sidelines, even as he told world leaders in his UNGA address that he faced a choice between striking a deal with Tehran or moving to "annihilate" the Islamic Republic. He said he expects an agreement to come only after November's midterm elections, arguing Iran is "waiting to see how I do." Iran's military dismissed the rhetoric as a "sign of strategic desperation" and said it stood ready to inflict "more crushing" strikes than earlier in the seven-month conflict, while separately, a senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if Washington eases its naval blockade. Shipping through the strait remains far below normal, running at roughly 38% of its pre-war baseline, according to Kpler.

Fed policy added a second layer of caution. Boston Fed President Susan Collins warned in a LinkedIn post that there is "an increased likelihood" inflation stays "notably" above the Fed's 2% target, a view echoed by ECB board member Philip Lane, who said a "second wave of rising energy prices" would likely keep inflation higher for longer. Markets are split on whether the Fed hikes again in October, with roughly 53% odds priced in via CME's FedWatch tool.

What could change the picture: A confirmed breakthrough in U.S.-Iran talks, or a surprise miss in this morning's S&P Global PMI print, could move futures more decisively than the modest overnight action suggests.

Overnight Markets

Asia-Pacific was mixed: South Korea's Kospi rose 0.9%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 inched higher, and mainland China's CSI 300 closed 0.6% lower; Japan's markets were shut for a holiday. European shares were broadly lower Wednesday morning, with the Stoxx 600 pulling back from earlier gains as Brent crude resumed its rally.

Pre-Market Movers

Rates, FX & Crypto

Commodities

Key Levels & Catalysts Today

Already reported this morning

• Manchester United (NYSE:MANU) — Fiscal Q4/full-year results released before the bell: record full-year revenue of £677.6 million and record adjusted EBITDA of £216.4 million, but a wider net loss of £43.0 million. Shares were down 3.0% pre-market despite the record top-line figures, with the loss and cautious FY27 revenue guidance (£740-£760 million) weighing on sentiment. Management holds its earnings call at 11:30am IST (not ET).
• General Mills (NYSE:GIS) — Fiscal Q1 net sales of $4.4 billion, down 3% on the prior-year yogurt divestiture (organic sales flat); adjusted diluted EPS of $0.75, down 13% in constant currency. The company reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2027 outlook.
• Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL) — Fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.99 far surpassed the $0.17 estimate, on revenue of $849.3 million that also beat consensus despite a 2.2% year-over-year decline. Total debt was cut to $337.2 million from $484.6 million following a sale-leaseback of 26 locations and the divestiture of Maple Street Biscuit Company. Comparable restaurant sales fell 2.1%, and fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $3.325 billion-$3.400 billion came in below prior expectations, but the EPS beat and debt reduction outweighed the softer top-line guide; shares also jumped on news of a maintained quarterly dividend and no new store openings planned for fiscal 2027.

Also reporting before the bell

• Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) — Fiscal Q1 total revenue rose 6% to $1.63 billion, with diluted EPS up 14% to $1.21 (adjusted EPS $1.34, up 10%), both ahead of consensus estimates near $1.33 EPS and $1.66 billion revenue. PEO and Insurance Solutions revenue grew 12%. The company raised its PEO and Insurance Solutions growth guidance for fiscal 2027 to 7-8% (from 6-7%) and lifted its interest-income outlook, while other guidance metrics were unchanged. Despite the beat, shares fell sharply pre-market as investors weighed competitive pressure in the PEO/HR-outsourcing space and management's forward commentary on client retention and pricing power.

Earnings Calendar (Today)

Economic data

• US Flash Manufacturing PMI and US Flash Services PMI (September) due at 9:45am ET; prior readings were 53.2 (manufacturing) and 56.8 (services). Initial jobless claims follow Thursday.

Corporate

• McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) holds its Investor Day from Chicago headquarters (8:30am CT), unveiling its "NEXT" growth strategy: targeting a low-to-mid 50% operating margin by 2030, roughly 250 basis points of restaurant-level efficiency gains, and up to $8.5 billion in franchisee support through 2036. The plan includes a new AI-powered restaurant operating system ("ArchIQ") and a systemwide training initiative, "Make It Golden," launching October 5.

Top Stories

Trump says a deal with Iran is possible, but so is "annihilation." President Trump told the UN General Assembly he faced a choice between striking a deal with Tehran or moving to "annihilate the Islamic Republic," and predicted the two sides would reach an agreement only after November's midterm elections. Despite the rhetoric, U.S. and Iranian officials held what Trump called a "very productive" three-hour meeting on the sidelines. Iran's military dismissed the threat as a "sign of strategic desperation."

AI executives to brief the UN Security Council. OpenAI's Sam Altman, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, and Hugging Face co-founder Clément Delangue are due to address the council on the risk that advanced AI could slip beyond human control, a session chaired by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. Trump, by contrast, told world leaders Tuesday that the U.S. "rejects any attempt to construct a globalist scheme to control" AI and would "encourage it, not rein it in," ahead of his Thursday meeting with China's Xi Jinping.

OECD flags an energy-driven slowdown ahead. The organization said AI-led investment is helping the global economy hold up better than expected this year, with growth revised up to 2.9% for 2026, but warned the Middle East-driven commodity shock is becoming more entrenched and could weigh on 2027 growth, projected at 3.0%. U.S. growth was upgraded to 2.2% this year, while inflation is seen hitting 3.6% in 2026 before easing to 2.6% in 2027.

Venezuela's interim leadership meets Trump. Interim president Delcy Rodríguez met Trump for the first time since taking office, to discuss energy, mining, and public finances, following the U.S. takeover of Venezuela's oil revenues after President Nicolás Maduro's removal in January.

FBI says it's investigating a claimed breach. Hacking group ShinyHunters claimed it stole personal data on current and former FBI employees, saying the move was retaliation for the bureau's disclosures about its methods. The FBI confirmed it is investigating.

White House defends its press ban. The administration defended barring CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from its briefings, arguing in a court filing that the outlets published "verifiable falsehoods" tied to national security reporting on the Iran war.

Mortgage rates hit a two-year high. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.12%, its highest level since 2024, as Treasury yields climbed on elevated energy prices and debt supply. Mortgage applications fell for a third straight week, down 1.5%, with refinancing applications down 3%.

McDonald's brings back Monopoly. Starting October 6, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) revives its Monopoly promotion with a simplified, app-only "peel then scan" format, offering prizes including a $1 million cash prize and a 2027 Jeep Cherokee — timed alongside the company's NEXT strategy rollout at today's Investor Day.

Eyes on the 9:45am PMI prints and any headlines out of McDonald's Investor Day for the next read on consumer spending and Fed expectations.