Farm Equipment Stocks Sink on FTC Inquiry: Deere, CNH, AGCO and Caterpillar Compared

Key Highlights

• Deere, CNH Industrial and AGCO fell 3.8% to 6.1% on October 7 after the FTC and USDA opened a farm equipment inquiry.
• The inquiry is fact-gathering, not a lawsuit, with public comments open until December 7, 2026.
• Caterpillar, with no farm segment, fell 5.75% as long-dated Treasury yields hit two-decade highs.
• Trailing P/E ratios range from about 15 times at AGCO to about 50 times at CNH.
• Late October earnings will test tariff costs, order books and the agricultural cycle.

Farm equipment stocks had a poor session on October 7. Deere, CNH Industrial and AGCO fell between 3.8% and 6.1% after the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) opened a joint public inquiry into agricultural equipment markets. The weakness spread to Caterpillar and Oshkosh, on a day when the 10-year Treasury yield neared 5.4% and long-dated yields reached two-decade highs.

What the Inquiry Covers

The agencies want comment on dealer contracts, fees, repair access and alleged retaliation against farmers who buy outside the dealer network. Comments close on December 7, 2026. The notice does not single out a manufacturer, and an information request is not a complaint. But it follows the FTC's July settlement with Deere, joined by five states, which secured farmers' right to repair their own equipment.

Deere & Company (NYSE:DE): The Settlement Precedent

Deere closed at $656.87, down 3.80%, the smallest fall among the farm names, and rose 0.33% after hours. Because the repair issue has already been settled, some regulatory risk may have been priced in earlier.

In fiscal third quarter, net sales and revenues rose 5% to $12.6bn and net income reached $1.38bn, or $5.10 a share. Management raised its fiscal 2026 net income outlook to $4.75bn to $5.0bn and called 2026 the bottom of the cycle. At a $177bn market value, Deere trades near 36.5 times trailing and 31.3 times forward earnings. That implies investors expect the 2027 recovery to arrive on schedule, which leaves less room for delay.

CNH Industrial (NYSE:CNH): Largest Fall, Thin Margins

CNH fell 6.10% to $12.46, the largest decline in the group, after a run toward its 52-week high of $14.46. Second-quarter revenue was $4.8bn, up 2%, and adjusted EPS of $0.13 beat expectations of $0.11. But agricultural adjusted EBIT margin fell to 5.2% from 8.1%, and South American sales dropped 27%. Management guides 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.41 to $0.46 and expects an L-shaped recovery. A trailing P/E near 50 times rests on depressed earnings; against guidance, the shares trade at roughly 27 to 30 times.

AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO): Lower Multiple, Weaker Momentum

AGCO closed at $109.15, down 6.06%, about 24% below its 52-week high of $143.78. Second-quarter net sales fell 1% to about $2.6bn, adjusted EPS of $1.43 missed expectations of $1.54, and adjusted operating margin fell 170 basis points to 6.6%. Full-year guidance is adjusted EPS of $5.50 to $5.75. The trailing P/E of 15.1 times is the lowest of the three farm names, but on guided EPS the multiple is nearer 19 to 20 times.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT): A Sell-Off Without a Farm Link

Caterpillar closed at $813.83, down 5.75%. None of its reported segments is agricultural, so a fall of that size is hard to attribute to the inquiry. It fits better with the rate move and with questions about how durable data-centre and power demand will prove. The operating record is strong: second-quarter sales rose 24% to $20.5bn, adjusted EPS of $8.17 was up 73%, and backlog reached a record $72bn. Yet the shares trade at 35 times trailing and 26.9 times forward earnings.

Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK): The Control Case

Oshkosh closed at $128.61, down 2.66%, the smallest decline of the five. It makes aerial work platforms, fire apparatus and refuse vehicles and has limited farm exposure. Second-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.87 beat expectations of $2.60, but full-year guidance was trimmed to about $11 on a slower fire truck ramp. That puts the shares at roughly 12 times guided earnings, against 14.7 times trailing.

Regulation or Rates: What the Dispersion Suggests

The ranking of falls was CNH, AGCO, Caterpillar, Deere and Oshkosh. If the inquiry were the main driver, Deere, with its settlement precedent, should not have held up best among the farm names, and Caterpillar should not have fallen almost as far as AGCO and CNH. Two explanations are plausible and not exclusive. Higher yields raise financing costs for equipment buyers, and thinner margins at CNH and AGCO leave less buffer if parts and service pricing came under pressure. Valuation compounds both, since multiples of 35 times earnings or more at CNH, Deere and Caterpillar tend to be sensitive to discount rates.

What to Watch Next

Oshkosh, Caterpillar and AGCO report in late October, CNH in early November and Deere on November 25. Investors will watch tariff guidance, order books, customer financing and any sign that the inquiry is moving toward formal action. The risks cut both ways: record backlogs and easing tariffs could support earnings, while persistently high yields and a broader regulatory agenda could pressure margins and multiples. The inquiry may lead to no formal action, or it may shape later rules.