ASX Pre-Market: Wednesday, 9 September 2026

Welcome to your morning briefing on overnight Wall Street action and what's set to move the ASX 200 at the open. (See yesterday's ASX Post-Market Wrap: 8 September 2026 for the full session recap.)

Overnight Leads + This Morning

Tuesday was already a rough session locally before the overnight escalation. The ASX 200 dropped 90.10 points, or 1.00%, to 8,920.80, its worst session since early June and a fresh 20-day low, as rising oil prices and mounting RBA rate-hike fears weighed on banks, real estate and retail stocks. Eight of eleven sectors finished lower, with only energy, utilities and health care managing gains, and the index now sits 4.04% below its 52-week high.

Overnight, the US military struck targets near Iran's key oil export hub at Kharg Island and the port city of Jask, hitting Iranian oil tankers as part of what officials described as a broader effort to squeeze Tehran economically, in a war now in its seventh month. Brent crude rose about 1% to settle near US$98 in New York after nearing US$100 intraday, while WTI closed near US$93, its highest since early June. By early Wednesday AEST, Brent had pushed above US$99 following reports of fresh strikes near Kharg Island. Saudi Arabia also said Houthi attacks had halted operations at several of its energy facilities. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said markets are "increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict" and flagged upside risk to its oil forecasts.

Against that backdrop, Wall Street closed lower: the Dow fell 628.18 points (1.18%) to 52,786.07, the S&P 500 dropped 45.08 points (0.58%) to 7,673.52, and the Nasdaq eased 85.578 points (0.32%) to 26,421.413, with the Russell 2000 down 0.52% to 2,960.204 and the VIX up 2.75% to 15.72. Canadian and Latin American markets were mixed: Toronto's TSX Composite fell 1.07%, but Mexico's S&P/BMV, Brazil's Bovespa, Argentina's Merval and Colombia's IBC Index all posted gains. Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MS) equity strategists nonetheless reiterated their optimism on the S&P 500, framing the pullback as a rotation "from AI enablers to adopters" rather than a broader positioning unwind. Despite the soft US close, ASX 200 futures were pointing to a firmer open, up 17 points (0.19%) to 8,924, having pared back earlier gains as US selling gathered pace into the close.

Analytical View

Tuesday's session was fundamentally a banks story, not a miners one. The ASX 200 Banks index dropped 1.76%, matching Financials' 1.63% sector decline and doing most of the damage to the benchmark, while Materials held up comparatively better, down just 0.57%, even as BHP (ASX:BHP / NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO / NYSE:RIO) both fell despite LME copper hitting record highs on a tightening supply crunch. Swaps were pricing a 68.8% probability of a fourth RBA hike this year at the September meeting, and that repricing, not the oil move itself, appears to be what's driving bank and rate-sensitive real estate and consumer discretionary weakness.

Overnight, the story shifted to energy. Fresh US strikes near Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub handling around 90% of the country's crude shipments, plus Houthi attacks halting several Saudi Aramco facilities, have pushed Brent toward a three-month high and reinforced the same inflation-and-rate-hike dynamic that hurt Tuesday's local session. That combination, a weak US lead but a firmer SPI print, suggests today's open is more likely to be shaped by how energy and rate-sensitive sectors reprice around the overnight oil spike than by a straightforward read-through from Wall Street's soft close.

What could change the picture: US producer price data on Thursday and CPI on Friday are the next tests for Fed rate-hike odds (currently priced around 60% for next week's meeting). Locally, the RBA's own decision lands 29 September, with markets already pricing a 68.8%+ probability of a hike.

Sector Performance

(Tuesday 8 September close, the most recent full session)

Eight of eleven sectors closed lower Tuesday, with only Utilities, Health Care and Energy managing gains. Financials and Information Technology were the session's biggest drags, both falling more than 1.6%, while the overnight oil spike puts Energy in focus again for today's open.

Winners & Losers

(Tuesday 8 September close, see the Post-Market Wrap for full detail)

Top gainer: SRL (Sunrise Energy Metals, ASX:SRL) +21.19% to $19.39. Top decliner: DTR (Dateline Resources, ASX:DTR) -8.99% to $0.081. BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) was the single worst-performing index constituent on the day.

ASX Announcements to Watch

• Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX), FY27 guidance and three-year outlook: lodging with the ASX today, with management (CEO Wayne Bramwell, CFO Tommy Heng, COO Aaron Rankine, CTO Leigh Devlin) presenting via webcast at 12:00pm AEST / 10:00am AWST, followed by Q&A. Watch for fresh production, cost and gold-price guidance.
• Metcash (ASX:MTS), 2026 AGM: held today at 1:00pm AEST at the Wesley Conference Centre, Sydney, with webcast access for remote shareholders. Key business includes the FY26 remuneration report vote, a director election (Ms Sparshott), and approval of performance rights for Group CEO Douglas Jones. Worth watching for management commentary on trading conditions and FY27 outlook.
• Jameson Resources (ASX:JAL), retail entitlement offer opens: the retail leg of its non-renounceable entitlement offer opens today at A$0.035 per share, following a A$5.3m institutional raise completed last week (ahead of its A$5m target). Proceeds fund the Crown Mountain steelmaking coal project's environmental assessment and Indigenous-partnership engagement. The retail leg is expected to add roughly A$1m.

Commodities & Rates

Home & Away

Names with a foot in both camps today, ASX movers with direct overseas read-through, and overseas news with a local echo.

BHP (ASX:BHP / NYSE:BHP): Port Hedland wage negotiations ended Tuesday without an agreement, with talks resuming next Tuesday, 15 September, under Fair Work Commission facilitation. BHP's current offer includes a 17% cumulative pay rise over four years, a $25,000 transition payment, and improved allowances, covering roughly 450 operators and maintenance workers at a port handling around $80 million of exports daily. Keeps BHP, the index's largest constituent, in focus at today's open on labour-cost and operational-continuity grounds.

Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS / NYSE:WDS): Brent's push toward US$99 to US$100 puts Australia's oil and gas producers in the spotlight at today's open, with Woodside the most likely direct beneficiary given its scale.

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM): rose around 4% after signing Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as a data-centre chip customer, with Amazon getting warrants over up to 25 million Qualcomm shares at US$161.26 each (worth up to roughly US$4 billion) as part of a multi-generation supply agreement. Separately, Amazon's own chip orders under the deal could reach up to US$60 billion over the next decade.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC): jumped around 9%, with the bigger driver a Northland Securities upgrade and reports the company plans to raise PC processor prices roughly 10% from October. The Qualcomm-Amazon news added a secondary tailwind. AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), Corning (NYSE:GLW) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) also rallied on the broader AI-infrastructure theme, a positive overnight read-through for ASX-listed tech and semiconductor-exposed names, even as the broader US market closed lower.

Local Catalysts

RBA rate-hike odds sit above two-thirds into today's open. Swaps were pricing a 68.8% probability of a fourth RBA hike this year as of Tuesday's close, which helped drive the Financials- and Real Estate-led selloff. The Bank's next decision lands 29 September.

Banks did most of the damage in Tuesday's selloff. The ASX 200 Banks index fell 1.76%, its worst showing in the sector table, while Materials proved more resilient despite BHP (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) both falling.

Westpac abandons its "no more hikes" call, joins the other majors. Chief economist Luci Ellis said Tuesday that Westpac (ASX:WBC) now expects the RBA to lift the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.6% in November, reversing the bank's prior forecast of a hold through the rest of 2026. That means all four major banks now expect at least one more hike this year. NAB (ASX:NAB) is tipping September, while ANZ (ASX:ANZ), CBA (ASX:CBA) and Westpac all point to November. Westpac-MI consumer sentiment fell 5.2% to 84.4 in September, reversing the prior two months' gains, even as Ellis flagged a more resilient household sector and larger spillovers from the data-centre boom as the reasons behind the bank's about-face.

Copper hits a fresh record, keeping ASX copper names in focus. Three-month LME copper touched a record US$14,703 a tonne on Tuesday, extending its rally on tight supply outside the US as traders continue shifting metal into American warehouses ahead of possible tariffs, compounded by storm-related disruption in Chile and Middle East-linked concerns over acid availability for South American refiners. The move keeps ASX copper exposures in play at today's open. Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) and 29Metals (ASX:29M) are the more direct plays, alongside BHP (ASX:BHP) and Rio Tinto's (ASX:RIO) diversified copper books.

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser keeps inflation front and centre. In a Tuesday-night interview on ABC's 7.30, Andrew Hauser called inflation the economy's "one big problem," said Australians are "furious about inflation," and stopped short of calling a rate hike "inevitable." He named the Middle East crisis, the global AI-investment boom and weak domestic supply capacity as the three forces keeping inflation elevated, and said the Bank "stand[s] ready" to tighten again if needed. The RBA's next decision lands 29 September.

Overnight / Global

Oil is the dominant overnight story. Fresh US strikes near Kharg Island and Jask, plus Houthi attacks that halted several Saudi Aramco facilities, pushed Brent toward US$99 to US$100 and WTI above US$93 to US$94, with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) flagging that shipping disruptions could persist into 2027.

OPEC output fell sharply in August. Group supply dropped 900,000 barrels a day to 19.91 million a day, driven by a Saudi production cut of just over 1 million barrels as both its Gulf and Red Sea export routes came under pressure, only partly offset by gains from Iraq and Venezuela.

Wall Street strategists still see a soft landing for the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) called the recent pullback a rotation "from AI enablers to adopters" rather than a broad positioning unwind, and expects the next leg of gains to favour services-oriented, asset-light sectors: software, financial services, insurance and healthcare services.

Fed rate odds firming into next week. Fed funds futures are pricing around a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at next week's meeting, with US producer price data Thursday and CPI Friday the next tests of that view.

Management & Fed / RBA Speak

Daan Struyven and team, Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS), on oil price risk:

Said markets are "increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict," modestly raising the bank's oil-price estimates on the assumption that shipping disruptions persist into 2027, and noted "risks to our price forecast remain significantly tilted to the upside."

Russel Chesler, Head of Investments and Capital Markets, VanEck (NASDAQ:VNCK), on oil and rates (Tuesday):

Said oil prices will remain higher for longer, a view that helped drive Tuesday's bank- and tech-led selloff as investors priced in less room for the RBA to hold.

Luci Ellis, Chief Economist, Westpac (ASX:WBC), on the bank's shift to a November hike call:

Said "the likelihood of an additional rate hike has risen enough to make a November rate hike (+25bp to 4.6%) the base case again," pointing to "growing evidence of a more resilient household sector" and a "larger-than-expected impetus from the spillovers from the data centre boom." She added that internal board members could still muster votes for a September move if they judged the situation urgent enough, though Westpac's base case remains November.

Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia, on inflation (ABC's 7.30, Tuesday night):

Called inflation the economy's "one big problem," saying "people are furious about inflation" and that "everywhere I go, I hear cost, cost, cost, inflation, inflation," describing bringing it down as the Bank's core responsibility. He stopped short of calling a further rate hike "inevitable," but said the RBA "stand[s] ready" to raise rates again if needed. He identified three forces keeping inflation elevated: the Middle East crisis, the global AI-investment boom, and weak domestic supply capacity, and downplayed falling house prices as a major factor in the Bank's inflation outlook.

Corporate Actions & Earnings Calendar

Ex-Dividend Today (Wednesday, 9 September 2026):

Closing Line

That's the pre-market wrap for today. The ASX opens on a mixed set of signals: a weak Wall Street close and Tuesday's own 20-day-low session on one side, but firmer SPI 200 futures and an overnight oil spike that's put energy and rate-sensitive sectors back in focus on the other. Thursday's US producer prices and Friday's CPI print are the next real tests for Fed odds, while the RBA's own 29 September decision looms larger with every fresh oil headline.

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Meta Title: ASX Pre-Market: 9 September 2026, Oil Spikes Near Kharg Island, Futures Point Higher

Meta Description: ASX 200 futures point to a firmer open after fresh US strikes near Iran's Kharg Island sent Brent toward US$99 and WTI above US$93, even as Wall Street drifted lower and Tuesday's local session marked a fresh 20-day low on RBA rate-hike fears.

Meta Keywords: ASX 200 today, Australia pre-market, Iran oil strikes Kharg Island, Brent crude WTI, RBA rate hike odds, SPI 200 futures, ASX 200 banks selloff